METEOROLOGY
Local Forecast / Downscaling
von Storch et al. introduction
Ensemble Forecast
 
 
PROBABILISTIC AND NEURAL MODELS
Kevin Murphyy's introduction
Breese & Koller Tutorial
 
Sara Farmer's Links
Probabilistic Methods in AI
Assoc for Uncertainty in AI
Microsoft Research
Hugin Home Page
 
Neural Nets
 
Links to Bayesian and Neural Networks
 
EVOLUTIVE ALGORITHMS
 
FRACTALS AND MULTIFRACTALS
Multifractals:
 
Links to Fractals and Multifractals
 

NONLINEAR DYNAMICS: CHAOS

Synchronization
Links to Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos
 
 Dr. José Manuel Gutiérrez

  Associate Professor 
  Chair of the Dept. of Applied Mathematics
  E.T.S.I. Caminos, Canales y Puertos
  University of Cantabria Santander, Spain

 Phone: 34-942-201723 curriculum vitae
 e-mail: gutierjm#unican.es, where # means @
 PGP fingerprint: EC92 80C5 F686 8B8F DA0E 4E44 31B7 0A8F C069 4F26
 
    Research Interests
 
Climate Change and Regionalization
Statistical andDatamining methods for regional projection of climate change scenarios. [trasparencias cambio climático Cantabria]
Statistical and machine learning techniques
Datamining methods based on Bayesian networks, neural networks and modern statistical techniques. Automatic learning and aplications.
High performance computing. DataMining Grid
Implementing datamining applications in the high performance data and process distributed GRID environment http://www.datamininggrid.org
Weather and Climate forecast
Local forecast (downscaling) techniques combining numerical atmospheric/oceanic circulation models and statistical data (observation records). Short-range forecast and seasonal forecast.
 
Free pdf copy of a book
 Free pdf copy of a book
 "Expert Systems and  Probabilistic Network  Models"  availabe here
E. Castillo, J.M. Gutiérrez and A. Hadi
 (only Spanish version)

 "Redes Probabilísticas en Neuronales en las Ciencias Atmosféricas"
J.M. Gutiérrez, R. Cano, A.S. Cofiño y C. Sordo
Preprint pdf copy

MeteoLab Machine Learning Toolbox (for Matlab)

 
RESEARCH PROJECTS
ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts (2004-2009)
Integrated project of the EU 6th Framework Programme (73 partners).
Project Homepage
EELA (Integrated Project. EU's 6th Framework Programme) (2006/2008)
EELA- E-Infrastructure shared between Europe and Latin America

  Development of Grid Environment for Interactive Applications (2002-2005)
    EU 5th Framework Programme (21 partners). Project Homepage Subcontracted by CSIC.
    WP1.4 Data mining in Meteorology (page 49-)
    Slides (introduction to data mining in meteorology, Spanish)

  DEMETER Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble system for seasonal to
  inTERannual prediction
(2000/2003) Project Homepage
    EU 5th Framework Programme (12 partners). Subcontracted by INM.
    Transparencies of the meeting in Kiel, Germany (July, 2003)

  Genetic and Evolutive Algorithms for Fractal Modeling and Compression (2000-2002)
    Univ. Nac. de la Patagonia Austral UNPA (Argentina). Project 29/A070

    Transparencies of the talk given at IBERAMIA-2000

NATIONAL


  Economic Value and Predictability of Seasonal Ensemble Forecast Models in Middle
  and Tropical Latitudes
(2005-2008)
    CICYT. Plan Nacional sobre el Clima (Cantabria Univ., INM, CSIC).

  Modelos de Downscaling Regional para la Predicción Estacional. Desarrollo de Técnicas
  basadas en Redes Autoorganizativas y estudio de la significancia de las predicciones.
    Contrato del Instituto Nacional de Meteorología (2004).

  Hybrid Statistical-Numeric Techniques for Weather Prediction (2000-2003)
    CICYT REN2000-1572. Plan Nacional sobre el Clima
(Cantabria Univ., INM, CSIC)).


  Implementación y Desarrollo de Herramientas de Predicción Automáticas a Escala Regional
    Contrato del Instituto Nacional de Meteorología (2001-2002). HTML
    PROMETEO. A system for local weather forecast in 3000 Spanish stations LINK
    Transparencies of the talk given at CAEPIA-99

 
Courses Taught

  Cálculo II (Ingeniero de Caminos, Canales y Puertos)

  Engineering Computation (Cornell program)

  Introducción a la Programación en Internet (libre elección) web

  Algoritmos genéticos y técnicas automáticas de aprendizaje (doctorado)

  Análisis de Datos con Técnicas no Lineales (doctorado)

  Minería de Datos - Datamining (doctorado)

  Web Dinámica (Máster en E-Business) editor

  Link to data sets MooreGeorge costs costsC fish fishC exp countries countriesC anova anovaC

Slides on Some Research Topics
[] Free Software (Java Applets and Mathematica Notebooks)
[] pdf files (English)


 + Time Series Modeling and Synchronization using Neural Networks
    CACIC 2000 Conference, Argentina (2000).
 + Message Unmasking in chaos-based communications using functional nets
 + Genetic Algorithms for the Inverse Fractal Problem
    Iberamia 2000 Conference, Brasil (2000).

[] pdf files (Spanish)


 + Cambio Climático y Reginalización (grupos de Cantabria)
 + Introducción a la Minería de Datos (Data-Mining)
 + Redes probabilísticas, neuronales y algoritmos genéticos
 + Tutorial de Redes Neuronales
 + Desenmascaramiento con redes funcionles y neuronales
 + Modelos Probabilísticos en Sistemas Expertos (more slides)
 + Sistemas no lineales. Algoritmos y aplicaciones

    Tutoriales en la V Conferencia Nacional de Ciencias de la Computación, Bolivia (1998).
 + Fractales y Caos en Sistemas no Lineales. Aplicaciones.
    Conferencia en la UNPA, Argentina (2000).

 

PUBLISHED BOOKS

 


Redes Probabilísticas y Neuronales en las Ciencias Atmosféricas

 

J.M. Gutiérrez, R. Cano, A.S. Cofiño and C. Sordo

Monografías del Instituto Nacional de Meteorología, Ministerio de Medio Ambiente, Madrid, 2004 (en prensa).

MeteoLab Meteorological Machine Learninig Toolbox (Matlab).

Preprint pdf copy available.

 


Functional Networks With Applications. A Neural Based Paradigm.
 

E. Castillo, A. Cobo, J. M. Gutiérrez, and E. Pruneda.

Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1999.

Several Java applets and Mathematica notebooks have been developed for working with different types of functional network architectures.

Spanish edition Paraninfo / Int. Thomson Publishing, 1999.

 


Expert Systems and Probabilistic Network Models
 

E. Castillo, J. M. Gutiérrez, and A. S. Hadi.

Springer-Verlag, New York, 1997.

Several computer programs have been developed for working with different types of expert systems introduced in this book. (download X-pert software).

Spanish edition. Monographic Series of the Spanish Academy of Engineering , Madrid, 1997 . Free pdf copy available.

 
Mathematica
 

E. Castillo, A. Iglesias, J. M. Gutiérrez, E. Alvarez, and A. Cobo.

Editorial Paraninfo, Madrid, 1993.

This book describes symbolic computation using one of the most popular symbolic packages: Mathematica. Illustrative applications in the fields of dynamical systems, statistics, data manipulation, etc., are provided.

Download slides and notebooks for the course (Spanish).

 
SELECTED PAPERS

WEATHER FORECAST. Weather Generators and Statistical Downscaling

 
 
Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Weather Prediction

A.S. Cofiño, R. Cano, C. Sordo and J.M. Gutiérrez [ pdf preprint ]
Proc. of the 15th Eurpean Conference on Artificial Intelligence
IOS Press (2002).

 

 

Self-Organizing Maps for Statistical Downscaling in Short-Term Forecasting. A Case Study in the Iberian Peninsula.

R. Cano, A.S. Cofiño, J.M. Gutiérrez and M.A. Rodríguez [ pdf preprint ]
Applied Meteorology (submitted), April (2002).
 

 

Statistical Dowscaling with Bayesian Networks

J.M. Gutiérrez, A.S. Cofiño, C. Sordo and R. Cano [ pdf preprint ]
Climate Dynamics (submitted), March (2002).
 

 

A Model for Hurst Noise in Climatological Time Series

M.A. Rodríguez, A.S. Cofiño, and J.M. Gutiérrez [ pdf preprint ]
XXVII General Assembly of the European Geophysical Society (2002).
 

 

Dynamic Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Time Series Prediction

J.M. Gutiérrez, C. Sordo, R. Cano, A.S. Cofiño, and M.A. Rodríguez [ pdf preprint ]
XXVII General Assembly of the European Geophysical Society (2002).
 

 

Redes Neuronales y Patrones de Analogías Aplicados al Downscaling en Modelos Climáticos

R. Cano, J.M. Gutiérrez, A.S. Cofiño and M.A. Rodríguez [ pdf preprint ]
La Climatología Española en los Albores del Siglo XXI.
Ed. Asociación Española de Climatología, 113-121 (1999).
 

 

Modelización y Predicción con Redes Probabilísticas

R. Cano and J.M. Gutiérrez [ pdf preprint ]
V Simposio Nacional de Predicción
Ed. Instituto Nacional de Meteorología,
235-240 (2001).

NONLINEAR SCIENCE. Fractals, Multifractals and Chaos

 

A New Exact Method for Obtaining the Multifractal Spectrum of Multinomial Measures and IFSP Measures

J.M. Gutiérrez and M.A. Rodríguez [ pdf preprint ]
Chaos, Solitons and Fractals, Vol. 11(5), 675-683 (2000).

 

 

Mathematica Package for Analysis and Control of Chaos in Nonlinear Systems

J.M. Gutiérrez and A. Iglesias
Computers in Physics, Vol. 12(6), 608-619 (1998).
Get the mathematica package chaos.m and the notebook.
 

 

Synchronizing Chaotic Systems with Positive Conditional Lyapunov Exponents by Convex Combinations of the Drive and Response

J.M. Gutiérrez and A. Iglesias [ pdf preprint ]
Physics Letters A, Vol. 239, 174-180 (1998).
 

 

Nonlinear Time Series Modeling and Prediction Using Functional Networks.Extracting Information Masked by Chaos

E. Castillo and J.M. Gutiérrez [ pdf preprint ]
Physics Letters A, Vol. 244, 71-84 (1998).
 

 

Efficient Rendering of Fractal Image Generation

J.M. Gutiérrez, A. Iglesias, V.J. Rodríguez, and M.A. Rodríguez
The Mathematica Journal, Vol. 7, 6-14 (1997).
Get the mathematica package IFS.m and the notebook.
 

 

Suppression of Chaos Through Changes in the System Variables and Numerical Rounding Errors [ pdf preprint ]

J.M. Gutiérrez, A. Iglesias, J. Guémez, and M.A. Matías
Chaos, Solitons and Fractals, Vol. 6, Number 7, 1351-1362 (1996).
 

 

Suppression of Chaos Through Changes in the System Variables Through Poincaré and Lorenz Return Maps [ pdf preprint ]

J.M. Gutiérrez, A. Iglesias, J. Guémez, and M.A. Matías
International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos,
Vol. 7, Number 8, 1305-1316 (1996).
 

 

A Multifractal Analysis of IFSP Invariant Measures: Application to Fractal Image Generation

J.M. Gutiérrez, A. Iglesias, and M.A Rodríguez [pdf preprint ]
Fractals, Vol. 4, Number 1, 17-27(1996).
 

 

Suppression of Chaos Through Changes in the System Variables: Transient Chaos and Crises

J. Guémez, J.M. Gutiérrez, A. Iglesias, and M.A. Matías
Physica D, Vol. 79, 164-173 (1994).
 

 

Logistic Map Driven by Dichotomous Noise

J.M. Gutiérrez, A. Iglesias, and M.A Rodríguez [pdf preprint ]
Physical Review E, Vol. 48, Number 4, 2507-2513 (1993).
 

MACHINE LEARNING. Bayesian, neural and functional networks

 
 
Some Applications of Functional Networks in Statistics and Engineering

E. Castillo, J.M. Gutiérrez, A.S. Hadi and B. Lacruz [ pdf preprint]
Technometrics, Vol. 43(1), 10-24 (2001).

 
 
 
A Minimax Method for Learning Functional Networks

E. Castillo, J.M. Gutiérrez, A. Cobo and C. Castillo [ pdf preprint]
Neural Processing Letters, Vol. 11(1), 39-49 (2000).

 

 

Working with Differential, Functional and Difference Equations Using Functional Networks

E. Castillo, A. Cobo, J.M. Gutiérrez, and E. Pruneda [ pdf preprint ]
Applied Mathematical Modeling, Vol. 23, 89-107 (1999).
 

 

Modelling Probabilistic Networks of Discrte and Continuous Variables

E. Castillo,J.M. Gutiérrez, and A.S. Hadi [ pdf preprint ]
Journal of Multivariate Analysis. Vol. 64, 48-65 (1998).
 

 

Symbolic Propagation and Sensitivity Analysis in Gaussian Bayesian Networks with Application to Damage Assessment

E. Castillo,J.M. Gutiérrez, A.S. Hadi, and C. Solares [ pdf preprint ]
Artificial Intelligence in Engineering. Vol. 11, 173-181 (1997).
 

 

Sensitivity Analysis in Discrete Bayesian Networks

E. Castillo,J.M. Gutiérrez, and A.S. Hadi [ pdf preprint ]
IEEE Transactions on Man, Cybernetics and Systems,
Vol. 27, 412-424 (1997).
 

 

A new Method for Symbolic Propagation in Bayesian Networks

E. Castillo,J.M. Gutiérrez, and A.S. Hadi [ pdf preprint ]
Networks. Vol. 28, 31-43 (1996).
 

 

Goal Oriented Symbolic Propagation in Bayesian Networks

E. Castillo,J.M. Gutiérrez, and A.S. Hadi [ pdf preprint ]
Thirteenth National Conference on Artificial Intelligence AAAI-96 (Portland).AAAI/IAAI, AAAI Press/MIT Press, Vol. 2: 1263-1268 (1996).
 

 

A Modified Simulation Scheme for Inference in Bayesian Networks

E. Castillo,J.M. Gutiérrez, and A.S. Hadi [ pdf preprint ]
International Journal of Approximate Reasoning,
Vol. 14, Number 1, 55-80 (1995).
 

 

Parametric Structure of Probabilities in Bayesian Networks

E. Castillo,J.M. Gutiérrez, and A.S. Hadi [ pdf preprint ]
Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence. Vol. 946, 89-98 (1995).
 

 

Causal Network Models in Expert Systems

E. Castillo, A. Cobo, J. M. Gutiérrez, A. Iglesias, and H. Sagástegui
Microcomputers in Civil Engineering, Vol. 9, 315-328 (1995).
 

 

A Probabilistic Network Expert System for Quality Control

J. M. Gutiérrez and S. Zayim
Proceedings of the 5th Turkish Symposium on Artificial Intelligence and Neural Networks (1996).
 
 

Last update March, 2003